For most of us across the world, Covid seems to have largely abated. As we looked at getting back to our normal, the Russian attack on Ukraine has taken centre stage in the global geopolitical arena. Wars wreak havoc on the lives of people it impacts - as our intellect evolves, we should be able discuss our differences and come to solutions without war. We have a long way to go till we reach that point it seems. The loss of lives is wrong, but as with all things human, there are just a lot of complex angles to the current war. Thankfully, Russia seems to be now finally at a point of retreating its influence from some key areas in Ukraine and there is a hope that negotiations may bear fruit soon.
We have had an uncharacteristic peaceful world for the last few decades where we had a 'cold war'. This was an aberration as the history of humanity is filled with varying degrees of wars and battles being played out for resources and power in different parts of the world. The peace spurred global supply chain lines and led to increased productivity across the world and in turn the interdependence of countries for goods and services, became a reason to avoid any large scale wars.
Covid showed us the fragility of the global just in time system for goods. Supply constraints lead to early inflation for some products which was later exacerbated by the large scale money printing and return of demand. The Russia Ukraine war has gone one step further in making businesses rethink their supply strategies. A war with this degree of military engagement was least expected by the world and going forward the disruptions caused by Covid and the War shall remain key risks that most business strategies will be forced to incorporate. This could mean that the spectre of higher productivity and lower costs that came with globalization may be behind us.
The quote by Russian leader Lenin is most appropriate right now. “There are decades where nothing happens; and there are weeks where decades happen.” The events of the past few weeks may have a lasting impact on how countries and businesses interact with each other. It is important to be attuned to these changes and grasp opportunities that they may yield. We pray that the conflicts stop and the cost and difficulties faced by people in this war end immediately.